COVID update
Counting cases
COVID is about one-tenth as deadly as the global Spanish flu of 1918. But it is deadly. In the US, where COVID is widespread, an average city of 50,000 lost 100 people to COVID. In the US, COVID was the third leading cause of death behind heart disease and cancer.
Death comes with age
Over ⅔ of the deaths are among those over age 65, and only 3% of deaths are in people under 45. This is true even though those over 65 have higher vaccination rates. In the US, COVID makes up about 1 out of 10 deaths in those over age 35.
Young COVID
The risk of COVID for school-age children is very low. In the 2019—2020 flu season in the US, 486 children 17 and under died from the regular flu. As of October 2021, 513 children 17 and under died of COVID in the US over the preceding 18 months. Less than 1 out of 100 deaths in this age group are due to COVID.
Delta variant
In our summer issue, the Delta variant, then known as the Indian variant or B.1.617, was at the very early stages of spread in Canada. Since then, the Delta variant has become widespread. It is 2 to 3 times as infectious as previous variations of COVID. This is a vast difference in a virus. It may be slightly deadlier, as well.
Vaccines
Vaccines reduce risk
Over 6 billion shots have been given worldwide, a huge sample to see effects. We can use US data to review vaccine effects. Because all 50 states have different vaccination and COVID rates, we can use them to see how well the vaccine prevents COVID. We can conclude that higher vaccination rates lowers the rates of COVID deaths. Based on the math comparing the 50 states, 40% of the lower COVID deaths are explained by the vaccines. Other, unknown factors explain 60% of the decline in COVID.
Vaccine effects
Vaccines essentially move you to a younger age bracket for COVID risk. A vaccinated 70-year-old is at roughly the same risk as an unvaccinated 45-year-old. This shift reduces the risk of death and hospitalization by 10 times.
Vaccine deaths
People have died from the vaccines. The number is debatable, but no one suggests that more people die from the vaccine than from COVID even though far more people have been vaccinated that have had COVID. With almost 80% of Canadians vaccinated, the vaccine death rate is tiny at the worst. The US vaccine reporting system that is open for anyone to report bad outcomes has recorded thousands of deaths. But the deaths don’t mean they died from the vaccine, but that they died within days of getting a vaccine. Likely, the chance of dying from COVID vaccines is lower than the chance of getting struck by lightning.
Fading vaccines
Vaccine protection fades over time. After 5-6 months, the protection against bad outcomes seems to still be strong---over 80%---but the protection against infection drops to about 20%. This means the vaccine may keep you out of the hospital, but it won’t keep you from spreading the virus.
Boosters
The increased risk of infection after 6 months is the primary reason booster shots are now being rolled out. Due to COVID’s potency, it will be with us for a long time. Given that vaccine protection fades, COVID booster shots are part of our future.
Public health challenge
Suppose your job evaluation as a public health official depends only on COVID deaths. In that case, the best strategy is to get 100% of the population vaccinated. There is no question that vaccines reduce COVID deaths.
Future
In a few years, we may get to the point where a big percentage of the population has natural COVID immunity. Immunity from getting infected with COVID is much stronger than immunity from a vaccine. A high rate of natural immunity combined with vaccines and new social norms will eventually bring COVID under control, but it will be a while.
Results
COVID doesn’t increase the risk of death. That is already 100% for everyone. But COVID can shorten your life. We have to accept some risks. There is no risk-free life. As soon as we get out of bed, we are taking risks. Vaccines are not risk-free, but vaccines can reduce your risk of a bad outcome from COVID. We all need to take responsibility for our own health.
